This season has defied all expectations. The Braves, Yankees, Dodgers, and Astros are just a few examples of perennial contenders. However, there were many unexpected developments in the first part of the 2023 season.
The Rangers’ attack was so potent that their run differential skyrocketed, propelling them to the top of the rankings. The Reds won their division going into the All-Star break because they promoted young star Elly De La Cruz. World Series hopefuls like the Mets and Padres are now in the cellar of their divisions. The Marlins are currently in second place in the National League standings.
When the second half begins, how will these teams fare? Who will have the upper hand in the final stretch? And what exactly does your team play for?
We’ve asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers, and David Schoenfield to break down the rest of the season for each of the 30 teams based on their postseason chances. Doolittle’s predicted final win-loss records and odds for each of the 30 clubs to win their division, the playoffs, and the championship are also listed. If a team’s odds to win its division or the championship are not stated, then those odds were less than 1%.
- Advertisement -
Projections for the rest of the season are based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining schedule, with results based on Doolittle’s power ratings for each club. The strength rankings are based on the teams’ performance thus far in the season and predictions on how strong their roster will be overall.
We’ve included a new category called “unexpected score” to help put this season’s unexpected events into context. This number takes into account how much each team’s victory prediction, playoff prospects, and title odds have changed from the final preseason forecast. If a group’s score is lower than 100, it means that its viewpoint has shifted more than the average. If the number goes above 100, the team’s prospects have improved, whereas a score below 100 indicates negative news.
